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SCENARIO ANALYSIS

Introduction:

In today’s rapidly changing business, security, and economic environments, forecasting the near future and making precise strategic decisions has become critical. Scenario analysis is a powerful tool that enables leaders and planners to confront uncertainty by exploring a range of possible future outcomes, evaluating their potential impacts, and developing effective strategic responses.

This program enhances participants’ ability to use analytical and strategic thinking to envision alternative scenarios, assess risks, and develop policies and plans that minimize negative impacts and seize opportunities.

Who Should Attend:

  • Strategy and planning managers
  • Risk and business continuity managers
  • Security, safety, and emergency response officers
  • Public policy and decision-making professionals
  • Financial and economic analysts
  • Consultants and planners in both public and private sectors
  • Team leaders and project managers
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Course Content:

Day One: Fundamentals of Scenario Analysis

  • Introduction to scenario analysis: concept and importance
  • Differences between forecasting and scenario analysis
  • Steps of scenario analysis
  • Real-world examples: how scenario analysis reshaped strategies

Day Two: Identifying Key Drivers and Influential Variables

  • Internal and external environment analysis (PESTEL – SWOT)
  • Identifying drivers of future trends
  • Building key assumptions
  • Defining high-impact, high-uncertainty variables

Day Three: Developing Future Scenarios

  • Choosing scenario development approaches (Quantitative vs. Qualitative)
  • Building 2 to 4 alternative and distinct scenarios
  • Crafting narrative storylines for each scenario
  • Integrating visualization tools: maps and charts

Day Four: Scenario Evaluation and Decision-Making

  • Evaluating scenarios using the impact and probability matrix
  • Developing flexible and adaptive strategies and plans
  • Stress-testing current plans against future scenarios
  • Decision support tools under uncertainty

Day Five: Integrating Scenario Analysis into Strategic Planning and Decision-Making

  • Linking scenario analysis outcomes with institutional strategic planning
  • Developing flexible plans based on possible scenarios
  • Making strategic decisions under uncertainty
  • Embedding scenario analysis in the organizational decision-making cycle

 

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